Diverging Opinions
نویسندگان
چکیده
People often see the same evidence but draw opposite conclusions, becoming increasingly polarized over time. Prior discussions of this puzzle have focused on the failure of Bayesian reasoning or on the possibility of non-common priors. By contrast, we offer a model of diverging opinions in a Bayesian environment with common priors. In our model, people hold different private information and disagreement arises and continually increases as additional public information becomes available. We support our model with an experiment and argue for a useful reframing of the puzzle: Why can’t individuals share their private information on all dimensions of an issue, but instead concede to agree to disagree?
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